Stimulated by the proposal of “dual carbon targets” and the possible restart of the CCER (Nationally Certified Voluntary Emission Reduction) market, the development of China’s forestry carbon sink has entered an “acceleration mode”. Greenpeace, an international environmental protection organization, has recently sorted out and analyzed the current carbon sink potential of global forest ecosystems, forestry carbon sink risks and market chaos. It pointed out: Treat forestry carbon sink projects with caution, give priority to direct emission reductions, and focus on industrial technology upgrades and energy Transformation and avoiding the use of carbon offsets to “take shortcuts” are the most effective ways for companies to achieve the goal of “carbon neutrality”.
According to a media briefing issued by Greenpeace, due to the upper limit of the carbon sink potential of global forest ecosystems, risks and uncertainties exist in forestry carbon sink projects, and the development, market trading and supervision mechanisms of carbon sinks are not yet mature, and companies use forestry carbon offsets. More caution is needed. However, the understanding of forestry carbon sinks by all sectors of society is not comprehensive and in-depth enough. Enterprises are overly dependent on the effectiveness of forestry carbon sinks and are blindly optimistic.
Ye Ruiqi, Greenpeace Climate and Energy Program Manager, said: “Natural ecosystems cannot become bottomless pits for absorbing carbon dioxide. Forestry carbon sinks are only a low-cost, temporary compensation measure in response to carbon neutrality. Over-reliance on forestry carbon sinks and neglect of Direct emission reduction will not achieve carbon neutrality as scheduled. A perfect offset mechanism may not exist. Energy transformation and economic transformation are the right path to carbon neutrality.”
The total global carbon budget is limited
According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “Climate Change 2022: Mitigating Climate Change” report, in order to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and control the increase in global temperatures within 1.5 degrees Celsius, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by no later than It will peak before 2025, reduce by 43% by 2030 (compared to 2019), while reducing methane emissions by one-third, and reach net-zero emissions by 2050 at the latest.
However, the annual assessment report “Global Carbon Budget 2022” by the international scientific cooperation organization “Global Carbon Project” points out that if the 1.5°C temperature control target is to be achieved, the current global carbon budget only has 380 billion tons left. A rough estimate is that if the current annual emissions level of about 40 billion tons continues, even if forests and other ecosystems contribute 7.3 billion tons of carbon sinks and emission reductions each year, the carbon budget will still be exhausted within 12 years.
Not only that, 44% of the carbon emissions generated by human activities in the past 10 years still remain in the atmosphere. At the same time, as carbon dioxide emissions increase, the carbon sink role of terrestrial and marine ecosystems in reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide accumulation will weaken. The IPCC hopes that all departments around the world will sound the alarm and strengthen in-depth emission reductions, otherwise achieving the 1.5°C target will be in vain.
Forestry carbon sinks are generated based on the carbon sink function of forests. They refer to the process, activity or mechanism of improving the ability of forests to absorb and fix greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide through afforestation, reforestation, forest management, reduction of deforestation and other silvicultural activities. On the one hand, the carbon dioxide fixed in the forest ecosystem is not permanently stored and will continue to change with the growth state of the forest. Ecological factors (such as pests and diseases, meteorological disasters, geological disasters), human intervention (such as illegal logging, forest land conversion, policy changes), coupled with the uncertainty caused by global climate change, will all have an impact on the state of the forest. The actual carbon sequestration effect that forests can exert is subject to many limitations, and may even be reversed, turning from a carbon sink into a carbon source.
On the other hand, baseline determination, additionality disputes, double counting issues and carbon emission leakage risks that may arise in the accounting process of forestry carbon sequestration project emission reductions may lead to the overestimation of the emission reduction effect of forestry carbon sequestration projects.
Globally, forestry carbon sinks have become the mainstream type in the carbon offset market. According to Ecosystem Marketplace statistics, the market share of forestry and land use carbon offsets accounted for 46% of the total voluntary carbon offset transactions in 2021, gradually surpassing renewable energy projects. In China, forestry carbon sinks, as one of the core projects of CCER, have high hopes from many companies. The CCER market may restart this year, and the demand for carbon offsets from emission control companies will further increase; in terms of supply of forestry carbon sinks, in 2022, The State Forestry and Grassland Administration launched the pilot construction of forestry carbon sinks, and 18 cities (counties) were selected.
Behind the market’s high expectations for forestry carbon sinks, the relevant policy mechanisms surrounding forestry carbon sinks have not yet been established and improved. The limitations and uncertainties of forest carbon sinks themselves, as well as the complexity of forestry carbon sink development and trading rules, have caused many chaos in the domestic forestry carbon sink market: entrants are mixed, and there are many traps in the development of forestry carbon sink projects; companies purchase forestry carbon sinks To achieve carbon neutrality, it is difficult to avoid the suspicion of “greenwashing”; developers blindly pursue “carbon sink” benefits and ignore the multiple benefits of forest ecosystems.
Chen Shuxuan, senior director of Greenpeace Forest Protection Project, believes that when implementing carbon sink projects related to afforestation and silviculture, one should avoid taking “carbon sink” as the single goal and comprehensively consider the role of forests in protecting biodiversity, coping with climate change, and community development. Multiple benefits in other aspects; scientific research and technical support should be strengthened to build a scientific and transparent measurement, monitoring and reporting system; the management of the forestry carbon sink industry should be strengthened, and the establishment, approval and verification of forestry carbon sink projects should be strictly treated to ensure that reductions can truly be achieved. Emission benefits; at the same time, strengthen publicity and advocacy to improve the understanding and awareness of governments, enterprises, and financial institutions at all levels on issues related to forestry carbon sinks; finally, companies need to realize that forestry carbon sinks can only play an icing on the cake in reducing emissions. , fossil fuel emissions should be reduced, and net-zero emissions goals should be achieved by relying on energy transformation and industrial technology upgrades.
