In October this year, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar stated that Turkey’s annual solar and wind installation capacity needs to reach 5GW by 2035. Renewable energy has huge potential to help Turkey achieve its 2035 goal of “providing reliable and affordable energy supply in an environmentally friendly manner.”
According to Turkey’s National Energy Plan, power installation capacity was 95.9GW in 2020, and will increase to 189.7GW by 2035. The share of renewables in Turkey’s installation capacity will increase from 52% in 2020 to 64.7% by 2035. By then, solar PV power will play a key role in Turkey’s power supply, with installation capacity reaching 52.9GW, wind power capacity will reach 29.6GW, including 24.6GW onshore wind power and 5GW offshore wind power.
For other renewables, hydropower installation capacity will reach 35.1GW, and geothermal and biomass power plant installation capacity will reach 5.1GW.
The national energy plan also stated that the share of renewables in primary energy consumption will increase from 16.7% in 2020 to 23.7% by 2035.
Bayraktar said, “We need to find the right balance between providing reliable energy while having competitively priced energy.”
Turkey Solar Market
Nishant Kumar, an analyst at Rystad Energy, said: “The short-term goal of adding 5GW of solar and wind capacity annually before 2027 is undoubtedly ambitious, while it is achievable in the medium term (after 2027) and long term (after 2032).”
Kumar said solar PV installation capacity has grown significantly over the past six years, from 1GW in 2016 to around 9.5GW at the end of last year, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45.5% over the entire phase.
Turkey launched a net metering program in 2018, allowing households and businesses to sell excess electricity back to the grid for profit, so the main installation capacity comes from rooftops and commercial and industrial areas (78%).
In May this year, Turkish authorities announced new feed-in tariffs for renewable energy projects (including solar projects) grid-connected between 2021-2030. Kumar said the feed-in tariff for solar PV systems is 1.06 Turkish Lira/kWh (US$0.037/kWh), which can provide more favorable pricing for developers.
According to data from SolarPower Europe, a European solar trade body, Turkey is the world’s fourth largest solar manufacturer with about 8GW of annual capacity in 2022.
“With about 8GW of manufacturing capacity, Turkey can achieve its goal of adding about 3-3.5GW of solar annually.”
In 2020, the Turkish government introduced new regulations on solar module imports. The new rules stated that import duties on solar modules will be calculated at US$25 per kilogram instead of US$300 per square meter. However, earlier this year, the Turkish government updated import tariffs, raising import duties on unincorporated or unpackaged solar PV cells to US$60 per kilogram.
Kumar commented: “This will benefit domestic manufacturers in Turkey as today’s highly efficient modules tend to be heavier than a few years ago.”
PV Potential
Turkey has high solar irradiation. According to data from the World Bank Group, most regions of Turkey have 1,400-1,800 kWh per year of solar PV potential, especially in its southern and southeastern regions such as Konya, Ankara, Antalya, Kahramanmaraş, and Adıyaman.
In this context, Turkey also has some other factors that can stimulate solar PV growth.
“Turkey has a growing economy and population with increasing electricity demand. Solar has the potential to play an important role in meeting the growing need for clean and reliable electricity.”
As of the end of December 2022, Turkey’s population reached 85.3 million. Turkey’s GDP is expected to grow from US$3.35 trillion in 2022 to US$3.61 trillion in 2023.
“Overall, Turkey has enormous solar potential – a large population, rising energy demand, and highly attractive irradiation all boost Turkey’s solar outlook,” said Daniel Tipping, senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Challenges
However, there are still challenges to achieve Turkey’s stated renewable energy goals.
A spokesperson from Turkish inverter manufacturer Solplanet said: “One of the main challenges to support such massive solar capacity growth is ensuring the necessary infrastructure is in place. The grid needs to be able to handle the huge influx of renewables coming in. Upgrades or expansions are therefore necessary.”
The spokesperson added that ensuring financing for large-scale solar system development is another challenge.
“Attractive investment opportunities and financial products available to support developers and end-users are crucial to meet the government’s renewable targets.”
Kumar also said the Turkish government should simplify permitting and ease the process of obtaining permits, which will help accelerate project development.
In February 2023, an earthquake of magnitude 7.8 hit southern and central Turkey, killing more than 50,000 people and injuring 100,000. Solplanet said growth in the solar market was disrupted in the disaster zone involving 11 cities. Nevertheless, the Turkish Solar Energy Industry Association and Energy Investors Association jointly dispatched about 12,000 solar panels to the earthquake-hit areas in southern Turkey.
According to multiple news reports, these power-generating modules can meet lighting, partial heating, phone chargers and refrigerator needs.
“The earthquake brought huge challenges but installation works are continuing as usual in other parts of Turkey. On the other hand, this unfortunate incident has sparked more interest in distributed energy solutions,”
Tipping added: “The earthquake does not seem to have had a major impact on solar power generation. Installations were around 1.5GW over the first ten months of this year, on par with full-year 2022 installs.”
