UK Enters Multi-Gigawatt Growth Phase in Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market

According to the latest research from Solar Media’s market research team, the UK solar industry is set to add 1.7GWpdc of PV capacity in 2023, continuing its growth post-subsidy era (including Feed-in Tariffs and Renewable Obligation Certificates).

Over the next few years, the UK is poised to enter a phase of multi-gigawatt market growth.

Since 2018, when incentives for traditional ground-mounted projects ceased, the market has seen continuous growth for five consecutive years.

As predicted by Solar Power Portal in recent years, the significant impact of approved investment applications for large solar projects breaking ground is set to influence the overall contribution of solar energy to the UK’s energy landscape.

Final data for 2023 will be disclosed in a few months. Currently, a -5%/+10% margin of error is applied to the cited 1.7GW figure. Upside conditions include the completion of several large projects (with a nominal capacity of 50MWac), some of which may be delayed until 2024.

Compared to 2022, the new development of 1.7GW in 2023 represents a YoY growth of 33%, driven primarily by residential and ground-mounted projects. The residential market is currently at levels seen in 2010 when the enticing Feed-in Tariff rate was 43 pence (approximately $0.52) per kWh.

Once again, the ground-mounted PV sector dominates the majority of the UK’s new PV installation capacity. Similar to most large ground-mounted projects built before, many have been conducted discreetly, possibly due to potential political backlash in the 12 months post-election, where local ministers are heavily focused on re-election prospects.

Furthermore, despite a significant increase in solar awareness across the nation, solar power plants are still viewed as a sensitive subject by major political parties. The rhetoric remains cautious, claiming allegiance to the potential of rooftop solar.

It is anticipated that the additional 1.7GW solar PV capacity in 2023 will bring the UK’s cumulative PV installed capacity to approximately 17.6GW, with approximately 60% originating from large solar power stations. This approach may receive acclaim at some point in the future, even if not entirely justified, as we are not quite there yet.

Moving into 2024, there is no reason why solar power generation cannot reach the 3GW mark. The industry is currently in a large Contracts for Difference (CfD) project construction mode, with the first National Significant Infrastructure Projects (NSIP) set to add capacity to the grid. Regardless of the situations in residential and commercial rooftop sectors, these factors create conditions for a substantial increase in generation every quarter and year.

Simultaneously, planning applications (or grid connection applications) continue to rise. From projects currently under construction to provisional grid connection applications extending to 2039, the total for ground-mounted projects far exceeds 100GW.